“Left-behind places” is a term popularized in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election to explain Donald Trump’s electoral success in places that had previously supported Barack Obama.
There is no widely accepted definition or means of measurement, but the term remains widely used to denote any place (i.e. a region or city) that has failed to experience the growth in incomes, jobs and productivity that other “more successful” places have enjoyed.
Left-behind places can be rural, urban or suburban. A 2024 nationwide study from the Economic Innovation Group defined left-behind places as counties that experienced less than half the national population and median household income growth rates between 2000 and 2016.
Using that definition, 972 counties out of 3,144 were classified as left behind, with Illinois, Michigan and Ohio being the only states where a majority of residents live in such counties.
In Michigan, all of the Upper Peninsula’s counties, except for Marquette and Keweenaw, were classified as left behind.
This article examines the factors behind the widening gap in economic opportunity within the United States and considers the gap in wages and employment growth between the Upper Peninsula and the rest of the nation.
Being left behind
For much of the 20th century, economists theorized that regional differences in wages, unemployment and business formation would dissipate over time, as business ideas diffused and cost differentials motivated people and firms to relocate to lower- cost regions. This theory was largely supported in the period after 1945.
But beginning in the 1980s, technological and regulatory changes alongside globalization have weakened the forces behind regional convergence. The development of global supply chains has allowed businesses to shift production to cheaper offshore locations, while technological advances mean fewer people are employed in traditional industries. In rural areas, shrinking employment opportunities result in people leaving, which in turn erodes the social fabric of left-behind communities.
Researchers have identified increases in so-called “deaths of despair” among middle-aged white people without a college degree in areas with shrinking economic opportunities.
New jobs in the knowledge economy are dependent upon a well-educated workforce. Companies and individuals in these sectors benefit from the effects of agglomeration, whereby the concentration of highly skilled workers attracts new businesses, which in turn attracts more talented workers. The result of this process is that much of the nation’s economic growth is in a few large coastal metropolitan areas.
At the same time that technological innovations were benefiting a small number of large metropolitan areas, the deregulation of certain sectors of the economy has worked to the disadvantage of small towns and rural areas. The passage of the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 removed regulations on interstate branching and led to a rapid consolidation within banking, which has hurt small community banks.
A decade or so earlier, the airline industry was deregulated with the abolition of the Civil Aeronautics Board. One of the board’s functions was to ensure the cost of flying to and from small and midsize cities was roughly on par with flights to and from large cities.
A few years later, the adoption of a lax antitrust framework at the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division and the Federal Trade Commission led to a wave of corporate consolidation that, in turn, hurt the ability of small local entrepreneurs to compete.
Wage and employment growth in the U.P.
The data for this analysis is provided by the Department of Labor’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and covers all private sector jobs. In the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. average weekly wage was $1,236; the equivalent figure in 2024 was $1,550. Average weekly wages in U.P. counties are below the national figures for both time periods, and nine counties failed to keep up with the national increase in wages, meaning these places are falling behind. Between January 2020 and January 2024, the number of jobs in the U.S. increased by 3.7 percent; in the Upper Peninsula, the corresponding figure is 1.0 percent.
Conclusions
Over the past four years, the U.P. has fallen behind national increases in wages and employment. Its “left behind” status is the product of deregulation and technological changes that are beyond the control of local policy makers. And while there is some evidence of recent population growth in the region (Marquette County’s population, for example, is estimated to have increased by 1,000 between 2020 and 2023), this increase is unlikely to have much influence on boosting wages and employment compared with national trends.
Given the well-documented widening gap in economic opportunities, it should not be surprising that people who remain in “left behind” places feel marginalized and forgotten. The challenge for policy makers is to craft a more equitable approach to economic development or risk rising inequality and discontent.
It will not be an easy task.
Michael Broadway is professor of geography at Northern Michigan University.
